Bearish sentiment around Bitcoin is gaining momentum, with traders on decentralized prediction platform Polymarket assigning a 72% probability that the asset will fall below $55,000.
The spike in downside bets reflects growing caution across the broader crypto market. As Bitcoin struggles to reclaim higher resistance levels, participants on Polymarket have increasingly positioned for further weakness, signaling expectations of a deeper correction in the months ahead.
Trading activity around the sub-$55,000 contract has seen notable volume, underscoring conviction behind the bearish outlook. Additional downside targets — including potential moves below $50,000 and $45,000 — have also attracted measurable interest, indicating that traders are preparing for extended volatility rather than a short-lived pullback.
Spot Accumulation Builds as Derivatives Sentiment Turns Cautious
Sentiment is not uniformly bearish. Shifts in liquidity conditions and capital rotation in the spot market suggest that some investors continue to accumulate despite rising downside bets in derivatives and prediction markets.
The spot market offers the clearest counterpoint. Net purchases reached $654 million, marking the highest weekly inflow recorded in February. So far this week, buyers have maintained momentum, with net inflows totaling $97.5 million within just two trading sessions.
Buying activity of this magnitude suggests that a segment of investors remains confident in Bitcoin’s medium-term prospects. Sustained accumulation at these levels could help absorb sell pressure and provide structural support for price stabilization.
On-chain and volume indicators further reinforce this view. Data points to steady accumulation patterns, with trading activity tilting in favor of buyers rather than reflecting broad capitulation. While short-term sentiment leans cautious, capital flows in the spot market indicate that demand has not evaporated.
If this pace of spot accumulation persists, it could slow downside momentum and strengthen key support levels. Conversely, a reversal in inflows would likely validate the prevailing bearish outlook and increase the probability of deeper corrections.
Broader Signals Still Matter
While Polymarket has emerged as a visible gauge of investor expectations, it represents only one layer of market positioning. Several structural and technical factors ultimately determine the direction of an asset like Bitcoin, including liquidity conditions, derivatives positioning, and spot market demand.
The 72% probability assigned to a drop below $55,000 reflects a strongly bearish outlook. However, it does not guarantee that such a move will materialize. For Bitcoin to sustain a deeper decline, market conditions would likely need to deteriorate further, with intensified selling pressure and weakening support levels.
One indicator reinforcing the cautious stance is the Bitcoin Buy/Sell Pressure Delta. Historically, this metric has tracked shifts in market sentiment with notable accuracy. At present, the indicator remains in negative territory, signaling that selling pressure continues to outweigh buying activity.
As long as the delta reading stays in the red zone, bearish momentum retains structural control. A move toward zero—or a sustained shift into positive territory — would be required to signal weakening downside pressure and a potential change in trend. Until then, the broader technical backdrop suggests that the risk of a steeper pullback remains elevated.
